Post-Election Art Market: US & UK Collector Trends
- Cenk Üsel
- Jan 5
- 4 min read
Updated: 4 days ago
The global market impact of the UK general election held over the summer and the U.S. presidential election on 5 November continues to unfold, particularly in relation to taxation and import tariffs. In the UK, the budget presented by Labour Chancellor Rachel Reeves to Prime Minister Keir Starmer—followed by the introduction of new tax obligations—alongside the policy direction the U.S. president will set upon taking office in January 2025, raise a number of fundamental questions for contemporary art collectors and the art market more broadly.
Meanwhile, as the crisis in the Middle East, the ongoing war in Europe, and the global fight against inflation persist, a series of elections across continental Europe continues to dominate the agenda. In such an environment, which procedures and regulatory frameworks are likely to emerge that could shape the art market? If protectionist policies remain in place, how will art collecting, investment, and trade evolve? These pressing questions are set to remain among the most closely watched topics in the months ahead.
A Labour Government After 19 Years
The UK’s new Labour government drew attention in late October with the announcement of the largest budget increase in the past 30 years, alongside hikes in Capital Gains Tax and Inheritance Tax. In addition, the gradual abolition of tax privileges granted to non-domiciled residents from 2025 marks a critical turning point for high-net-worth individuals and art collectors. While these measures are significant for public spending on healthcare, education, and the justice system, their impact on decision-making among wealthy collectors will be substantial, with far-reaching implications for the art market.
Following the Chancellor’s decisions, the past two months have seen high-net-worth individuals withdraw from the UK stock market and shift toward safe-haven assets and investment vehicles less exposed to new regulations, clearly illustrating the impact of these changes. A similar trend is emerging in the billion-dollar global art market, where collectors—under the shadow of new taxes and regulatory frameworks—are reassessing and restructuring their investment strategies.
Trump’s Return
The situation in the United States presents a markedly different picture from that of the UK. Among Trump’s economic promises, tax cuts for high-net-worth individuals stand out, while proposed increases in import tariffs have also drawn significant attention. Should the president succeed in passing these measures through Congress and the Senate, the resulting process may partially complicate—or increase the cost of—bringing artworks purchased abroad into the United States for American collectors. At the same time, tax reductions could encourage collectors to repatriate their assets and capital back into the country.
Although the specific details of the new tax framework remain unclear, this approach aligns closely with Trump’s protectionist rhetoric to date. For the New York market—home to some of the world’s most important art collections—the steps Trump takes after 20 January are likely to play a decisive role in shaping collectors’ buying and selling behavior.
Pricing of the Art Market
The recent government changes in the United States and the United Kingdom, along with enacted and proposed tax adjustments, were clearly reflected in how the market was priced during the art auctions held in New York and London in November. Despite both countries moving toward monetary easing, the art market—which surged during the pandemic but has been in a downward trend over the past two years—continues to underperform relative to previous cycles.
Although interest-rate cuts by the FED, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank are generally viewed as positive steps for art collectors in terms of borrowing costs, liquidity, and broader economic stimulus, the global appetite among high-net-worth individuals for investing in the art market remains below expectations.
Although elections in the United States and the United Kingdom have concluded and interest rates are trending downward, ongoing wars in the Middle East and Europe—along with the inability to form coalition governments in Germany and France—are causing uncertainty to persist rapidly across the world’s major art capitals. This lack of confidence in the market was clearly felt through collectors’ cautious behavior not only at the November auctions but also at Art Basel Miami Beach, as well as through the noticeable decline in VIP attendance observed across major fairs. At the same time, Sotheby’s announcement that layoffs are continuing made headlines, further underscoring the volatile conditions currently shaping the art business landscape.
An Unsettled Market Cycle
In the coming months, accurately forecasting the direction of art-market acquisitions and investments will depend critically on the materialization of risk factors, a reduction in uncertainty, and the restoration of political and economic confidence. The resolution of political crises in the United States and continental Europe, the trajectory of ongoing wars, and the pace of interest-rate cuts stand out as key determining factors.
Until then, a foggy environment appears to dominate the art market for collectors. While the intrinsic value of artworks may remain relatively stable in such periods, current market conditions make the emergence of strong collector support, high-volume transactions, and rational valuations unlikely. It seems that, until confidence is restored, collectors will prefer to wait—leaving the art market under the persistent shadow of an unsettled cycle.
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*The views expressed in this article are solely personal opinions and should not be considered as investment advice.
*Disclaimer: Unless otherwise stated, all images featured in this article are AI-generated for illustrative purposes. They are not based on, affiliated with, or reproductions of any existing copyrighted images or artworks.
Cenk Usel
Art Market Professional
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